Causality in the Link Between Road Network Growth and Regional

1 This paper investigates the relationship between the growth of road net2 works and regional development. We test for mutual causality between the 3 growth of road networks (which are divided functionally into local roads and 4 highways) and changes in county-level population and employment. We 5 employ a panel data set containing observations of road mileage by type 6 for all Minnesota counties over the period 1988 to 2007 to fit a model de7 scribing changes in road networks, population and employment. Results 8 indicate that causality runs in both directions between population and local 9 road networks, while no evidence of causality in either direction is found 10 for networks and local employment. We interpret the findings as evidence 11 of a weakening influence of road networks (and transportation more gener12 ally) on location, and suggest methods for refining the empirical approach 13 described herein. 14